m&m has been a bit quite for a while and now we are going to bury this in the summer hole.

Double dip Recession

You can run a search on "double dip" here on m&m using this link. What you will find is that I and we at m&m always believed that we are heading for a double dip recession. It more and more looks like we were, unfortunately, right.

The main reason to believe a double dip recession would be unavoidable is (was) based on the figures and an outlook to the future. I talked about the certainty of a recession in 2007 because it is what happens. After a boom comes a recession - as certain is few things in life.
When we were heading into the recession in late 2007 / 2008 we slowly understood the immense size of the debt build up. Well, we had been warned of the trillions piling up for years - especially in the US and in Britain. And there was the deluded, unchecked spending sprees in places from Ireland to Greece - crash landing a deceived population.

With such large debt everywhere and governments trying to cushion the harsh landing on borrowed money and time - it became clear that we will not recover easily and that this softening the blow was the start for the double dip.

Sure, the double-dip will not be the same everywhere. Some larger countries and economies like Germany and France will be hit less, though, no one is out of the woods on this.

The big Crunch .. or not?