Just as on the roller coaster on the right the economy will go down a bit more again before we will see modest improvements.

This prognosis can be underlined with a lot of statistics and bankers "science" - but it is also common sense and the milkman, the butcher and the baker down the road can tell you that (if you still have them). Otherwise you can take out a subscription for the FT (Financial Times) or the Times as provided for now by Rupert. The bottom line will be the same.

House prices in the countries with strong historic real estate equity growth (UK, US, Canada) will remain flat for a while to fall back in line with the more logical rate of doubling the value every 10 years which suggests an annual average increase of well below 10% - far more realistic than 25% on equity.